A Dark Horse’s MOVE

Despite the most recent market correction, we have observed relative outperformance in Aptos and Sui, suggesting that this trend might persist as we approach notable catalysts in April. Some might be tempted to chase beta and play the rotation game, for example trying to find “the $THL (outperformer in the Aptos ecosystem) of Sui”. However, this report will make the case for using $SUI as the proxy to get exposed to its ecosystem, as all it takes is one killer app to really kick things off and join the likes of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.

With momentum building towards Sui’s Basecamp event in Paris on April 10-11, we approach this opportunity with caution. The optimal window of opportunity to capitalize on such an event has already passed, as the market front runs the news and the actual event might as well signal a local peak. Between conferences, announcements, comparisons to other ecosystems, etc., this is just a reminder that there will be a lot of noise in this race.

In parallel, attention is currently split between modularity and parallelization, with debates heating up as ecosystems fight for mass adoption. Drawing from our analysis, the monolithic architecture of chains like Sui can facilitate quicker mass adoption, offering a more optimized and cohesive user experience. If this were to successfully unlock powerful consumer use cases, the underlying L1 chain could see an exponential influx of new active wallets, transaction volume, and renewed attention.

Pre-halving dips could present potential buying opportunities to get exposure to the growing Sui ecosystem, although we highlight the presence of large and upcoming unlocks in May and June. These unlocks could exert downward pressure on prices, primarily if the tokens are allocated to investors inclined to sell. There is no way to precisely tell whether this will be the case or not, so we will monitor the market and adjust position size accordingly.

To keep things simple and before we dive into the thesis, our case for Sui is that consumer use cases for crypto will eventually spring up. We don’t know how this will materialize, or whether $SUI will be the $SOL of this cycle. However, what we do know is that in a bull market, we want to spend as much time as possible riding the fastest horse.