Bias: Stay tactical—fade relief, buy panic. Setup: Oct 30 FOMC cut 25bps; QT halts Dec 1; Nov 1 Trump–Xi tariff framework cools headline risk; U.S. Gov. shutdown and data blindness tilt stagflation risk up. Timing: November seasonality supports BTC, but December FOMC path is uncertain and housing/labor stress raises demand risk. Positioning & Flows: Barbell BTC core + selective cash-flow tokens; no catch-all alts until BTC >$116k, ETH >$4k, SOL >$200.
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