Powell leaned dovish at Jackson Hole; Friday risk-on, Monday faded. ETH printed a fresh all-time-high near $4,960 then gave some back; BTC revisited $110k, bounced and held ~$112k pre-PCE, dumped below $110k after; S&P reached a new all-time high of 6,500 on Thursday; gold soared on a flight to value. Tilted to individual bias, but it’s reasonable to stay nimble for the next two weeks.

Key Takeaways

  • Powell’s Dovish Tilt: The Fed signaled possible rate cut in September, but labor market risks are still rising. Volatility is prone to spiking around key macroeconomic data (NFP next Friday).
  • ​Sticky Inflation Path: Core PCE remains elevated but not accelerating; yields and USD modestly up. Trade cautiously—no clear dovish surprise yet.
  • ​Risk-On but Fragile: S&P printed all-time highs, but crypto momentum faded post-PCE. Use tactical stops and confirm trades with data, not guesses.
  • ​Fed Independence Challenged: Trump’s move to fire Fed Governor Cook tests the Board’s autonomy. Watch headlines—outcomes could shift USD and hard-money bias.
  • Crypto Rotation: Select alts outperformed; intra-week corrections exposed relative value. If leaning bullish, it’s sensible to favor quality growth and revenue-driven tokens in the long book.
  • ​Bid-Ask Portfolio: 60% long, 40% short; hedge with BTC shorts and cash reserves. Press names with validated fundamentals, hedge headline risk.
  • ​Prediction Markets Surge: Polymarket and Kalshi continued gaining mindshare; sports betting and GambleFi narratives intensified. Arbitrage and airdrop opportunities abound.
  • ​Trade Ideas Roundup: Target cross-sectional momentum and relative strength, balancing tactical longs and shorts on inflection points. Manage risk with clear technical levels and time stops keyed to macro events.

Macro Overview

Powell opened the door to cutting “as soon as September.” Street odds of a Sep 25 bp cut moved into the mid‑80s% as major brokers flipped their calls. Tone shifted towards elevated labor-market downside risk, warning about layoffs and unemployment that could materialize quickly. FOMC meets Sept 16-17; PCE just came out at 2.6%—apparently in line with expectations but there is a bigger picture to look at.image1

A dovish‑tilt + still‑sticky inflation path puts front‑end yields in play while the long end stays anchored to term‑premium/politics. That mix is risk‑on friendly in bursts, but fragile if next week’s NFP surprise is hot. PCE is one of the few data points that re‑prices the path in one shot. Markets wanted ≤0.2% m/m Core; 0.3%+ revives “higher for longer.” The latest print on Friday was Core PCE up 0.3% for the month, just in line with forecasts and unchanged from June; sticky but not re‑accelerating. Rates and USD ticked up modestly on release. This print validates a cautious path that removes “hot‑print” tail risk but doesn’t deliver a dovish surprise.image15

PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation measurement. It often paints a calmer, broader picture than CPI. When PCE cools, front‑end yields and USD usually ease, letting risk assets breathe; when it runs hot, the reverse. The FED focuses mostly on Core PCE, excluding food and energy, to read the underlying trend. “Supercore”, excluding housing, is the sticky bit of inflation Powell has flagged—it’s more than half of core PCE (goods disinflate first; core services excluding housing tells you if the sticky part is easing).

  • Base case: “In‑line & sticky‑ish” chop; macro beta neutral. Prudent to cut gross if 2y yields push materially higher and BTC loses 108k on closing basis.
  • Bull skew: “Labor cools; cut odds climb”. PCE inline + weak NFP next week. If you align with this view, buying dips might be warranted. 
  • Bear guard: “Rates re‑price on labor beat”. USD would be stronger; DXY higher can signal you may want to think about de-risking ahead of FOMC.
  • What flips the script: Hot NFP or unfavorable revisions would mean cuts are priced out. Conversely, weak jobs could trigger adding risk on close—let spot inflows confirm.

Looking ahead, NFP is the next macro switch. Consensus is soft, but a downside miss helps only a little; a hot print hurts more. It’s pertinent to trade confirmation, not guesses; good news hurts more than bad helps because cuts are mostly priced in.

In other news, Trump’s move to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook—and her lawsuit to block it—puts the Fed’s “for cause” protection on trial. Markets already leaned to a steeper UST curve and softer USD on the attempt, consistent with a perceived push toward a more compliant, rate‑cutting Board. Crypto’s cleanest read is a hard‑money bid (BTC > alts); expect headlines and court motions to drive chops into the Sept 16–17 FOMC. Gold, however, might offer better risk-adjusted exposure for the time being.

Nixon already leaned hard on Arthur Burns ahead of 1972. Trump’s most recent attempt to reshape the Board rhymes with that incentive—public pressure on the Fed to juice growth into elections. USD bulls on “Fed can’t be bent,” are currently in pain; so may be alt-beta chasers on leverage. 

If the attempt succeeds and Trump reshapes the Board, the near-term bias tilts easier but at the cost of credibility—a mix that can sow boom-bust and inflation. If courts hold the line, the institutional guardrail stands. With debt high, the incentive to “inflate away” burdens remains, which is why independence matters.

Market Overview

ETH tagged a new all-time-high near ~$4,960 after Jackson Hole, then pulled towards ~$4400; BTC rallied to mid‑$117k last Friday, faded to ~109k by Mon/Tue. That signaled that, intra-week, it was time to keep gross light into Friday’s options expiry and PCE release. Gold has been outperforming; there is a bid on gold while BTC bleeds on macro uncertainty, tracking real rates & USD (inversely, regime‑dependent). Historically, when gold outperforms BTC, markets are signaling liquidity stress or policy risk.image11

For alts, Monday’s correction allowed the market to show its hand, exposing opportunities for relative value and idiosyncratic plays.image5

For next week, we are expecting a similar setup: long strength and closely track the market intra-week to measure gross exposure; respect 106k BTC and 0.0400 ETH/BTC; time-stop risk heading to Friday. 

Base case: Soft‑landing‑ish macro; Sept cut delivered; PCE/NFP not hot. Crypto consolidates high: BTC 105–120k, ETH 4.3–4.9k, favoring rotations to ETH on dips. Tape stays choppy but up‑biased. 

Bear case: Hot PCE or strong NFP + firmer USD. Re‑price cuts and lean towards risk-off. BTC could test ~100–105k, ETH 3.9–4.2k; ETF and DAT flows would stall. 

Bull case: Clean PCE + benign NFP + resumed ETF/DAT inflows. ETH clears/holds >$5k, BTC re‑tests 117–123k on breadth. 

If PCE (Aug 29) or NFP (Sep 5) print hot, flatten and reassess; if cool, scale winners. As uncertainty picked up, Bitcoin and stablecoins gained at the expense of altcoins (-1.2%) and ETH (-0.5%), though SOL remained largely unaffected (+0.1%). Despite the near-term downside, ETH is the only asset still up over the 180-day window (+4.7%), while SOL appears to be peaking, showing only a modest +0.3 % increase.image21

Amidst ETF delays, the DAT wave finally hit SOL: Pantera is prepping a $1.25B Solana Co (initial $500M + $750M in warrants); Galaxy/Multicoin/Jump are reportedly circling $1B more. In parallel, DEX perps growth continues to outpace CEXs, led by Hyperliquid’s success. Despite new all-time-highs this week, HYPE is still relatively undervalued (or the cohort is significantly overpriced) when compared versus L1s. Achieving almost ~$30M in weekly revenue for two straight weeks, the implied ~$1B run-rate shows a clear disconnect; the current ~12x P/S represents a significant discount versus the leading L1s cohort.image14

Alea Bid-Ask Portfolio

We expect uncertainty and choppy conditions for the first two weeks of September; we are calibrating the book to 60% longs and 40% shorts. Best practice is to keep some cash reserves, gold exposure, and not fully trust biased optimism around rate cuts. Even though Powell’s Jackson Hole tone opened the door to a September cut, his view is still sensitive to the labor and inflation path; the FOMC on September 16–17 sits squarely in the near‑term risk window. With September’s seasonal fragility in mind, we are adding BTC on the short side to hedge headline risk and smooth portfolio volatility while preserving upside if liquidity and flows re‑engage.image27

In the long sleeve we are bullish quality growth, cash-flow, and market-share compounders. We allocate ETH 20% and HYPE 20% as core engines: ETH for benchmark‑beating breadth and structural inflows; HYPE for dominance in market share with buybacks and roadmap catalysts that continue to show up in the tape. We complement that with SOL 15%; ETH DeFi with ENA 7.5%, PENDLE 7.5%, AAVE 7.5%; tokenization exposure and institutional ramps with LINK 7.5%; and a tactical trio of PUMP 5%, ETHFI 5%, and FLUID 5% to capture idiosyncratic fee momentum and product catalysts while still fitting liquidity discipline. The intent is to press names where fundamentals (fees, buybacks, product velocity, distribution) are being validated by price—we can still compound relative strength if the market consolidates at higher levels.image17

Hyperliquid was a notable exception outperforming on Monday’s open, finally making a new all-time-high past $50 on Wednesday. Its strength is a clean mix of market dominance with buybacks as a persistent bid, and a growth story being fleshed with HyperEVM and roadmap-proof HIP‑3 “builder‑deployed perps” live on testnet (a hard catalyst for more listings and volume once mainnet ships). The recent network upgrade decreased HLP’s fee share from the current 3% to 1%, with the remainder going to the Assistance Fund for buybacks. This again demonstrates how robust external market-maker liquidity currently is on the platform. image16

Aave sits at an all‑time high ~$65B deposits and ~$27B borrowed (~60% share of DeFi lending by volume). Its revenue-funded buybacks ($1M/week since April 9) have cumulatively retired 0.5% of supply (going into the ecosystem reserve to fund the “umbrella” insurance module and A‑stakers) and shows +$7.64M PnL (+41%) with an average entry around $232. This week Horizon went live for RWA-specific markets, allowing institutions to borrow liquid stables against offchain tokenized collateral. image26

The leading money market is positioned to take the lead in a future where all assets eventually live onchain. At launch, Horizon features partners such as Superstate’s USTB (short-duration U.S. TBills) and USCC (tokenized crypto carry), and Centrifuge (JRTSY and JAA; U.S. TBills and AAA-rated collateralized loan obligations); Circle’s USYC (high-quality, short-duration U.S. TBills) coming soon. Circle and Superstate lacking token exposure, we resort to CFG and LINK as adjacent proxies, -3,.3% and -12% on the week respectively. 

Aave v3 also went live on Aptos (first non-EVM deployment), and the v4 codebase is now feature complete. Going forward, without racking up fees, the existing $60B+ deposit base will focus on growing its revenue flows via i) GHO growth (targeting ~$500M) and value capture (full borrow rate vs. ~10% reserve factor on USDC/USDT), ii) Horizon (targeting $100–200M borrow first, then $1B, and ultimately $10B in ~3 years; 24/7 repo venue), and iii) Aave v4 (hub‑and‑spoke architecture with risk premiums). For reference, 100M GHO represents ~1B USDC/USDT in fee equivalence; at 1B GHO and a 5% rate, that’s ~$50M revenue. On profitability, Horizon may run narrower spreads than crypto markets but can be far larger in scale; rate compression is expected and acceptable if offset by volume.image6

Chainlink’s NAVLink will also power Aave’s Horizon instance. We have an optimistic outlook on the existing setup: trend up, fresh institutional catalysts, and structural buyers now in place; enterprise pipeline keeps the TradFi narrative hot and positioning is not utterly crowded—longs paying, but not frothy except for event-driven spikes. This week it was announced that they will be partnering with the U.S. Department of Commerce to bring macroeconomic data onchain. Meanwhile, the Chainlink Reserve is rapidly approaching ~200k LINK; bought ~41k LINK (~$1M) on Aug 22 during the rip to a new 2025 high near $27.8. During the recent run-up, two descending trendline patterns emerged, each followed by strong breakouts of 57%+. Given the token’s current positioning and our bearish BTC bias, a breakdown toward the ~$20 zone could provide a compelling risk-reward setup given the strength of its support and token fundamentals.image23

Fluid showed strength as the market started to recover intra-week. To last week’s governance discussion on the topic of buybacks (aims $10B in market size from the current $3B and $30M ARR within 6 months), we add the Solana expansion and DEX Lite + Jupiter Lend push for wider distribution (50/50 fee‑share). Expectations can signal accumulation on clarity; risk is “no-vote/delay”. Cumulative Fluid revenue now stands at $4.5M—everything accrues to the DAO. image9

Revenue run‑rate is strong, and the “fee switch” on Fluid’s DEX is already on (routed to the DAO), with an additional 10% reserve factor on Lending. Options on the table include i) dynamic buybacks by FDV (more buyback when FDV is lower), ii) 30-day TWAP trigger (100% of revenue buys when price < TWAP), and a team-favored iii) Oct 1 start with a 6‑month trial. Note that this will be future steady demand, not a near-term short-squeeze by itself. As it pertains to the roadmap, we are looking at the Juplend pilot (more integrations under consideration), DEX v2, permissionless vaults/DEXes, fixed rates, perps, and advanced LP strategies. 

Drift’s inclusion last week allowed us to successfully capture SOL beta. The tie with Syrup also matters; syrupUSDC margin went live and MapleKit keeps collateral yield in the funnel. This week, however, we will be de-risking the position and realizing profits.

In addition to Maple’s buyback-supported SYRUP continuation, we also keep a close eye on the PENDLE and ENA synergy. This setup often presents tactical trade opportunities: SYRUP tends to outperform when the overall market tanks; PENDLE and ENA typically bounce fast on the upswings. Boros brings an additional business line that propels fee acceleration for PENDLE; ENA’s collateral framework expansion contemplates support for BNB, XRP and HYPE next. An easing rate cycle should amplify growth for USDe’s supply; ENA is the most direct vehicle to capitalize on falling interest rates (next FOMC on Sept 16-17). SYRUP ENA Pendle

ETHFI is our pick for ETH beta. Fee‑funded buybacks support long-term conviction with an expanding product suite (Stake, Liquid, and Cash) while also offering an idiosyncratic bid into strength. Catalysts include upcoming announcements around the new Trade product on Hyperliquid as well as more Cash card activations. Tape and cash flow align on market share consolidation, revenue momentum, and optionality to hedge ETH beta as we monitor its all-time-high battle. Ether.fi has consistenly

PUMP allows us to capitalize on SOL exposure and ride discretionary buybacks (unlike programmatic bids, this strategy buys when it’s cheap and sizes with conviction). $10M worth of $PUMP went in last week, which translates into about $480M in annualized buying pressure for a token currently valued at $1 billion. After surviving the meme cooldown, the protocol kept printing cash. The upside now rests on durable usage, large revenues, and disciplined capital allocation to buybacks and acquisitions. In a risk-on regime we are confident that, if the team signals alignment and transparency, the market will reward them. The flywheel breaks if trust slumps, yet we are confident in a sentiment reversal. Deep tradable liquidity, no supply overhang, and the team will support price when it turns—the time to short was at launch, not now.image24

On the short side we hedge beta first, then fade weak momentum/flows. We size BTC at 30% of the short book (i.e., the single largest short) to deliver the cleanest, most liquid hedge against “hot data/firmer USD” shocks; the position is designed to dampen drawdowns rather than to call a trend top. Around that, we distribute the remaining sleeve across ADA 15%, HBAR 15%, ATOM 10%, DOT 10%, SHIB 10%, and FET 10%—all liquid perp markets—chosen for weaker cross‑sectional momentum vs. BTC/ETH, thinner near‑term catalyst sets, and a propensity to underperform when macro beta is questioned.image12

A 20% net long keeps us in the game if breadth extends, potentially adjusted to 50/50 next week. The key factor to account for in a reversal is if BTC squeezes and broad alts underperform (the BTC short hurts while alt longs lag). Note that the current long/short skew still implies being short BTC dominance. If sideways, we expect the alt leaders in the long book to outperform the weaker players exposed on the ask side.

Market Highlights

This week, ETH’s Spot ETFs (+$1.08b) continued to outperform BTC’s (+$441m), having 2.25x the amount of BTC’s positive net flows. Notably, these inflows occurred during a negative week, which is counterintuitive and highlights the strength of the ETH bid. These demand flows support our view for a higher ETH/BTC ratio.image22

DATs have taken a breather this week, with trading volume down 37% ($43B, from $68B) and a slight-1% change in NAV. Strategy’s Basic mNAV discount narrowed further, reaching 1.37 (down from 1.59), which remains 37% above the “Danger Zone” of 1. As discussed in our last Pulse report, this level should not be a concern, and even if it is reached, it does not pose systemic risk.image13

Long and mid-term majors and ETH DeFi still dominate—only ones featuring a ~30% up move on 90d; SOL DeFi standing out last week, also featuring a ~15% move on the monthly (vs majors’ 16% and ETH DeFi’s 18%. Memes and AI bleed and continue to underperform. It’s been a “ride majors, not stories” type-of-market. RWAs show a steady carry PnL-wise, but their deck of catalysts is not something to be underestimated. The same cannot be said for DePIN, down -25% over the last 90 days; AI -37% as well. image28

We still see green on the monthly. In the last 30d: ETH +29%, SOL +25%, BTC −5%; on 90d ETH still dominates (+68%) with SOL (+27%) and BTC flat (+2%). The market is also exposing strength on players that should be the quickest to rally on the bounce back; ETH DeFi up on 30d (AERO +51%, LDO +33%, FLUID +34%) but red over 7d. DePIN and AI both remain structurally weak.image18

It was a risk-off week where majors’ FDV printed red, DeFi TVL decreased (ETH-volatility exposed), stables caught a bid, and weekly movers were news-driven targets with questionable durability. 

  • Lubin’s push on the DATs front is fueling optimism around Linea—leading bridge deposits, +14%.
  • USDT $171.9B (+1.6%) and USDC (Circle) $70.4B (+6.0%) up, contrasting vs Aave’s -9.6%, Lido’s -8.7%, or EtherFi’s -8.6%—driven by ETH’s underperformance, -8.5%.
  • Selective TVL outperformance on stablecoin plays—Pendle and Ethena both have less ETH price exposure on AUM.
  • Weekly outliers are tied to idiosyncratic moves: Trusta AI +204.8% (tiny cap), Cronos +93.4% to $29.7B (Trump Media Treasury), Numerai +79.4% (JPMorgan secured $500M), Pyth +55.7% (U.S. Dept. of Commerce for distributing macro data onchain). 
  • SHFL stands up +20% on the back of prediction markets’ mindshare increase.image19

Prediction markets’ mindshare spiked: Trump Jr.’s 1789 Capital invested into Polymarket and joined its advisory board (while already advising Kalshi); Kalshi announced an expansion to Solana and hired John Wang as Head of Crypto looking for more crypto penetration; Robinhood rolled out pro + college football prediction markets through Kalshi ahead of season kick‑off; footballdotfun (fantasy football) and Limitless stand out on Base, offering opportunities for both entertainment and increased airdrop odds; Hyperliquid’s HyperEVM attracts a fair share of builders in this vertical, such as Mercury, OutcomeMarketX (14-day testnet with $20K+ in prizes for top PnL), Myriad (trade opinions on anything), Hipiq (CLOB-based), Hyer, or Ventuals (for pre-IPO startups). Other projects that stand out in terms of mindshare include: Fireplace, Alkimiya, Predict and Pump, Polldotfun, Melee Markets, Bluff, and TrueMarkets. More can be tracked in predictionindex.xyz.

We don’t think it will be the case that momentum will cool quickly. Instead, we expect seasonality carries the hype into September. Lots of arbitrage, mispricings, and points opportunities to be found in this vertical. Next up, watch out for “GambleFi” projects; sports is the wedge. This is a narrative where project differentiation typically requires large budgets allocated to KOLs and streaming partners. Luck.io on Solana, for example, counts with the support of voices like Ansem, whereas other older players such as Winr (Arbitrum Orbit), SX, or Shuffle, have been more under-the-radar and sit <$100M market cap levels (27% in past 7-days).image4

Immaterial to HYPE’s price action, the XPL pre-launch market exposed a market manipulation attempt that resulted in large liquidations; perps hedges from early XPL investors vanished as a result of >80% OI evaporating and clearing the entire asks, from $160M to $30M OI in just 10 minutes.

Adjacent to the Hyperliquid ecosystem, Hyperunit hit all-time-highs in 24h spot volume at $3.4B—more than Coinbase and Bybit spot combined. Hyperunit also reached the $1B TVL milestone. As a current tokenless protocol it is setting the stage to be one of the largest players within the ecosystem and potentially a lucrative airdrop for the future.

Another project we have covered recently, Euler, launched Euler Earn, simplifying UX for passive depositors; yield is rebalanced across vault strategies. If Earn sticks, fee velocity and TVL should inflect. While the Coinbase listing improves liquidity conditions, we don’t see as many event-driven tailwinds when compared to AAVE or FLUID. For that reason, it’s been left out from the Bid-Ask portfolio presented above. Euler’s founder, however, has been hinting at upcoming developments. EUL has also become yield-bearing, currently returning ~10% on EulerSwap (although <$200k have been supplied so far).

Trade Ideas

Following with our bid/ask rationale presented above, we will be looking for cross‑sectional momentum + relative strength, expressed with beta-aware trades and clearly defined technical levels.

Long ETH/BTC on dips if net-buying persists; fresh all-time-high + fresh inflows. Time stop after PCE + NFP (Sept 5). 

Long ARB & AERO, Short OP; The short side contemplates the Aug 31 OP cliff unlock (1% of the released supply to core contributors; 0.9% to investors) and tries to capture optionality for de-risking our longer-term ARB thesis while riding AERO’s Base momentum. image7

Long HYPE into Price Discovery: Watch out for holding above $49-50, potentially pushing to $55-60 on strong fee revenue; narrative power can squeeze on thin ask past $60-65. Not many tapes are printing all-time-highs with catalysts in view; fees and buybacks also offering a non‑discretionary bid. Spot volumes reached a new daily all-time-high above $3B, facilitated by Unit. Meanwhile, July’s perps volume is on the same order as Robinhood (Hyperliquid ~$311–331B vs Robinhood ~$238B in equities+crypto notional); Hyperliquid did it with <1/40th the user base.

Long FLUID (Short CRV): Consistently overtaking the incumbent’s DEX volume while providing optionality via additional lending revenue and idiosyncratic tailwinds (JupLend’s $300M on Solana; buyback discussions upon fee switch activation; DEX v2 upgrade). Today Fluid sits at ~$3B TVL with ~50% utilization and ~$18.5M annualized revenue (30‑day avg). After v1’s ~3‑month integration lag, v2 will prioritize aggregator integrations pre‑launch to turn on volume day one. Even with only stable pairs, Fluid briefly flipped Uniswap’s daily volume on Ethereum on one day—v2 targets being the largest DEX by volume across chains within 6–8 months of launch.Fluid outpaces

Long Bias Buildup on AVAX: Grayscale continues to push for the conversion to a spot ETF; SkyBridge announced $300M of hedge funds to be tokenized on Avalanche with Tokeny/Apex; funding has been hovering near negative—solid fuel if spot bids arrive.Avax is coiling

Long Tokenization, Short DePIN: Bullish view on tokenization and institutional adoption; bearish narrative weakness.

CFG on Watchlist (Long the Retrace): $235M FDV vs $1.1B TVL (placing it with BlackRock BUIDL and Ondo in the RWA billion‑club) implies ~0.21x FDV/TVL. The peer median is ~5–10x, and ONDO is ~6.7x. Catalysts on deck: fee switch and value accrual, RWA Summit Sept 16–17 as narrative amplifier. The token migration deadline (Nov 20, 2025) could also tighten the float; 38.9% migrated so far.CFG is trading

Maintain a Short Bias on PYTH: Rallied on the news of working with the U.S. Department of Commerce to verify and distribute macro data onchain; Chainlink echoing the same news in parallel, but the market cap difference is substantial and complicates the pair-trade. Derivatives OI was up +208% and volume +2,200%; this can drop significantly once the impulse cools. If funding stays extremely positive and price holds >$0.235, switch to stand aside. Otherwise you could spot opportunities to short the post-squeeze exhaustion. Derivatives Data Point

Watch for CRO giveback: The token spiked on the news tied to the Trump Media treasury vehicle. Similar setup to Pyth that already started retracing as we approached the end of the week. We would be eyeing an OKB-like retrace. 

“No change” (no cut) – Sep FOMC on Polymarket at ~$0.15: Market’s paying you to bet the Fed waits; current pricing assumes a clean, one‑way disinflation and a Fed eager to start. Polymarket’s user set is biased with a Trump skew—betting on what they would like to see happen. The Fed’s function, however, is risk-management. “Delay, not deny” is a live path that may be underpriced relative to 15%. If true odds are ~28–32%, even a modest repricing to $0.22-0.25 pre‑FOMC gives +7–10c mark‑to‑market without holding through the event. 

Conclusion

Base path (Aug 24–Aug 31): soft‑landing vibe holds; Sep cut likely; PCE/NFP not hot. Bias: stay net‑long while BTC holds 105–120k and ETH 4.3–4.9k; buy ETH vs BTC on dips; run idiosyncratic longs (HYPE, AAVE, PENDLE, FLUID, etc) with tight price/time stops. We’re paying to see benign NFP on Sep 5, ETH > $5k with follow‑through, HYPE ≥ $50, and steady ETF/DAT inflows. Hot data or USD firming would trigger a flip to cut alts exposure and keep cash in hand. Time is risk: scale winners on cool prints; go flat or find a safe haven in gold during adverse closes. If nothing moves, it may be appropriate to flatten gross exposure.